Rain Returns Mid-Week, Desperately Needed
Dry Conditions, Many Places 1.00"+ Below Normal
After a rainy end to the weekend, a few places in southeast South Dakota, southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa received some much needed rain from thunderstorms that were moving through the area. Dry conditions continue to persist across much of the region, but there will be another chance for showers mid week.
The dry conditions across the region have been growing more and more due to lack of rainfall across the region. Both South Dakota and Minnesota are nearly 100% dry; nearly 100% of South Dakota is suffering from abnormally dry conditions while nearly 100% of Minnesota is suffering from a moderate drought. The soil is dry due to drought conditions from a couple years ago and the current dry conditions are only helping the situation but there is a chance for more rain on Wednesday night and Thursday.
The jet stream hasn’t been able to pull enough moisture for a complete wash out event. When we are able to get a low pressure system to bend the jet more north and south, versus west to east, then the Gulf is “open” and moisture can move northward. Starting Wednesday, that will happen as a low pressure system will get cut off from the jet, which is why we call them Cut-off Lows.
The Cut-off Low will “open up” the Gulf meaning, the winds will pull moisture off of the Gulf and transport it northward. This means that there will upwards of an inch of precipitable moisture in the atmosphere for rain showers/thunderstorms to use. The chance for showers will begin as early as Wednesday day and continue through Thursday with the best chance for showers remaining south of I90.
We’ll keep the chance for showers on Wednesday as the warm front could shift northwards meaning we could see a better chance in the afternoon Wednesday. Once this rain chance moves through, places mainly south of I90 could potentially pick up another half inch of rain. Any amount of rain that does fall is greatly appreciated as, since January 1st, most of the area is about an inch or two below normal.
After this brief chance for rain mid-week, another chance of rain returns next weekend as well.