Unsettled Weather Ahead..
by Kelly Smith, Meteorologist
May 23, 2012 10:11 AM
After a relatively quiet week last week, this week will prove to be more unsettled as we move towards the Holiday weekend. Rain chances will be very hit or miss over the next five days or so as a series of systems move through the Sioux Empire. Heavier rains and some severe weather could also be possible over the next 24 to 48 hours.A cold front Wednesday will move across the state, sparking off showers and thunderstorms both in front and behind the cold front. Thunderstorms which develop Wednesday afternoon in advance of the cold front have the best chance at becoming severe. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has put our southeastern region in a slight risk Wednesday for large hail, high winds and insolated tornadoes. While an isolated tornado could be possible there is not a lot of helicity or turning of winds in the atmospheric column to aid in tornado genesis so the major threat Wednesday will be with high winds and hail.
(SPC Convective Outlook Valid Wednesday May 23, 2012)As the cold front moves to the east this afternoon and tonight, the cold front will tap into abundant moisture in the southeast and could produce very heavy rain showers. Heaviest rains will start after midnight for the southeast and could produce rainfall amounts between 1 to 2 inches. Some stronger storms will likely produce areas with rainfall totals over 2 inches. In advance of these heavy rain showers a Flash Flood Watch has been issued mainly for northwest Iowa and southwestern Minnesota through Thursday afternoon.
(Flash Flood Watch Valid Through Thursday 1pm CST)Heaviest rain will develop and move across the region overnight Wednesday most likely after midnight with the heaviest rain falling between 4am and 8am Thursday morning. Our in-house model brings areas of 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally heavier amounts in excess of 2 inches.
(Adonis model valid through Thursday 6pm CST)
(Simulated radar valid 03Z March 24)Rain will end towards the end of Thursday, and at the moment Friday is looking mostly dry but with such an active pattern we have kept in the slight chance that a shower or thunderstorm could develop. Better chances for rain return for Saturday as a warm front lifts north into South Dakota. If you have plans outside this weekend, Saturday and Sunday will need to be watched as the approaching warm front could potentially bring chances for stronger storms. Memorial Day Monday looks to be pleasant with dry conditions, sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 70's.As always, the forecast is ever changing. If you have outdoor plans this Memorial Day Weekend keep an eye on the weather as conditions could change quickly. The KDLT App on iTunes and Android is a great way to keep updated on changing conditions when you are on the go and away from home.