Heavy Rain *Could* be on its Way
by Cody Matz
June 13, 2012 8:08 PM
Will scenes like the one on your left be commonplace yet again this summer?? Well, with a very active and wet pattern that we started earlier this week, it could happen as wave after wave will roll through parts of the Upper Midwest sparking storms here and there for the next few days. Just how long this lasts and the exact location of some of the heaviest rain is still undetermined, but everyone has a shot. However, there are some locations that look better then others…
Take a peek at the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) forecast for days 3-7 (Saturday – Wednesday). While looking at the image, be aware that the CPC only forecasts generalized weather events like the ones you see listed in the image below because climate is looking at the bigger picture of weather patterns that typically last for days, weeks, or months at a time.
You can see that they have many areas of the east highlighted for 2 different bouts of heavy rainfall. One for Saturday and then a second one for consistent heavy rain Monday thru Wednesday. Now I know your next question, “how accurate are these forecasts?” Well, that can be a complicated question but here is the short version. Weather can be nearly impossible to predict, but the CPC looks at overall weather patterns that they see now and on a composite of all of the computer forecasting models around the globe, put those two together, and try to look for weather patterns that can lead to any one of the extreme weather events that you see above. So, they see real possibility of widespread heavy rainfall for those certain dates. But weather is ever changing so this forecast could and likely will change or get adjusted, but it’s a good tool to use to see what some major weather hazards are, or will be found in your area in the upcoming few days.
To get another opinion on the upcoming potential doom (not really, just really wanted to write doom on here since that’s about all we talk about) we can go to the HPC or the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Check out their 5-day rainfall forecast.
You can see that the majority of the really heavy rain stays just to our east, but still expected widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches. So take these forecasts however you like, but the active weather pattern is gonna be around so just have the umbrella handy.