Heavy Rain & Snow Possible This Weekend
by Cody Matz
February 06, 2013 7:00 PM
We are tracking a storm that is expected to appear in the western Plains sometime on Saturday and roll through the Upper Midwest through Monday morning. This storm has the potential to have a large impact on areas it crosses, which COULD include much of our area. Remember though that the exact track and intensity of this storm is still uncertain. The slightest shift in track or intensity could drastically impact the type and amount of precipitation. I showed you a couple of graphics in Tuesday’s blog to give you a little taste of what’s possible. Well the track of this storm has shifted a little further northwest that would bring more rain than snow in the southeast and a lot more snow in the north and west.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues broad based forecasts for large weather events based on computer forecasting model trends on a global scale. The image below shows a forecast for the 3 to 7 day time period, or Saturday through Wednesday of next week.
The CPC has a good chunk of our area receiving a band of heavy snow sometime on the 9th and 10th. This often can confirm the potential for heavy amounts of precipitation from some of the top climate scientists in the country… and lets face it, it is always good to have a second or even third opinion on any issue.
Now we come to the potential amount of snow. As of Tuesday, the band of snow trekked across our south and east, now it’s a solid 50-100 miles further northwest bringing more than a foot of snow to some areas.
Since the final track of this storm is still undetermined, these totals will likely change, however it does give you an idea of how much snow is possible with this storm and just how large the gradient will be from no accumulation to almost a foot. Basically 50 miles separate the 2, which means even a minor shift in the track of the storm could have huge impacts.
But just because your area might not be getting snow, doesn’t mean you wont get any precipitation at all. Areas south and east of the snow band will deal with plain old rain. And for February standards, it could be a lot. The image below shows the liquid precipitation forecast from Friday night through Sunday night.
Much of our area receives anywhere from a quarter to 3 quarters of an inch of liquid. This would not be a drought buster, however it might put at least a little bit of a dent into the drought and hopefully start our trend out of this dreadful dry spell. More will be posted on this storm in the coming days so stay tuned.