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The Next Storm Moves In

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As temperatures stay well below average, the next winter like storm starts to move in.  Thanks to the cold air, more snow, sleet, and freezing rain are expected across the area with rain likely across the southeast.  The heaviest of the precipitation will stay to our south, west, and east as seen below, however plenty of moisture can be expected from this storm.  That is certainly the bright side… the more moisture we can get, the more impact it will have on the drought.  As it stands, the heavy snow in the Black Hills over the last week will likely prevent fire season from starting in western South Dakota through much of the spring season.  More information on the storm can be found below.

Here is what the Weather Prediction Center shows for liquid precipitation through the country over the next 3 days.

Much needed moisture around here, but flood watches have been posted from Missouri to Michigan as too much rain and fast snow melt has led to very high water levels in those states.  It’s amazing that just a few short months ago, the drought was leading to some of the lowest water levels ever in the state of Missouri and Illinois, and now they are talking widespread flooding.

As for South Dakota, looks like more snow versus a lot of rain.  Check out the still very different computer models showing expected snowfall through Friday afternoon.

Notice, just like yesterday, that the first image is quite dry with spotty amounts of 1 to 4 inches of snow.  But the second image paints a much different picture with widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow with locally up to 15 inches.  Considering its April and this particular situation, both currently seem a little ridiculous.  Right now it looks like snowfall will likely be somewhere in between with widespread amounts of 3 to 7 with locally a little more or a little less certainly possible.  Here is what the Weather Prediction Center has for their snowfall forecast.  The following images are the probabilities of getting at least 2, 4, and 8 inches of snow.

According to the WPC, the entire area has a really good chance to receive at least 2 inches of snow over the next 48 hours.  Many areas even have more than a 50 percent shot at over 4 inches of snow.  As of right now, I would say that many locations in South Dakota have pretty good chances for at least 4 inches of snow.  Here is our forecast for the upcoming couple of days.

Looks like a pretty good swath of snow across much of South Dakota with 4 to 8 inches.  Slightly lesser amounts in the southeast and northwest.  But remember the second forecasting model image that I showed you above?  That is still a possibility with areas of over a foot, so this storm will have to be watched very closely.

Icing will also be a possibility; however a long term heavy icing event is NOT expected at this time.  But the components are there for at least some light icing across parts of the east.  Here are the areas that have the greatest potential to see at least some light ice accumulation.

This whole storm will be quite a bit different than the last two because it is expected to be a light precipitation but long duration event.  This means that off and on periods of precipitation can be expected from Tuesday night through Thursday night; however precipitation intensity at any one time will likely be light with some pockets of moderate precipitation here and there.  Stay tuned!
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