Sioux Falls Ranked 4th Most Unpredictable Weather in U.S.

A national study done by FiveThirtyEight.com has concluded that 3 of the top 8 cities in the United States with the most Unpredictable weather are located in South Dakota, with Sioux Falls coming in at No. 4.

The study surveyed data from each of the 120 National Weather Service locations across the 50 states and compiled a database comparing 10 weather statistics and how unpredictable they are in each city. This study was on how unpredictable the weather is and NOT if the weather is good or bad (i.e. “In San Diego, to a first approximation, it’s always 72 degrees and sunny. In Seattle, to a first approximation, it’s always 59 degrees and drizzly. Most people like San Diego’s weather better, but both cities have fairly predictable weather patterns. “).

There were three categories that the 10 weather statistics that were looked at were sorted into:

Temperature
   o High Temperatures
   o Low Temperatures
   o Daily Mean Temperatures

Precipitation
   o Rainfall (in inches)
   o Snowfall (in inches)
   o A binary variable indicating the presence or absence of precipitation (without regard to the type or amount of it). If there’s any precipitation at all over the 24-hour day, we score this variable as one. Otherwise, it’s zero

Severe Weather
   o Wind Speed
   o Humidity
   o Cloud Cover
   o A binary variable indicating whether there was a severe weather event (a thunderstorm, tornado or hail) in the city that day.

After finding extreme outliers, they created climatology maps for each category (Shown Below)

After calculating the data, they were able to rank cities by each category. Then they took each category and averaged them together to get their “Unpredictability Index” number. The higher the number, the more unpredictable the weather is for that city.

The city that finished with the most unpredictable weather is South Dakota’s very own, Rapid City! Sioux Falls finished in 4th, and Aberdeen was in 8th. The city that finished in second for the most unpredictable The city with the most predictable weather is Honolulu, Hawaii with San Diego finishing as the 2nd most predictable.

For more information and the full details check out the article HERE!

While the weather is seemingly tougher to predict in our area, the KDLT Weather Team is your most accurate way to get your weather forecast! Make sure to follow us on Twitter and “Like” us on Facebook!

Brandon Spinner
Chief Meteorologist

Categories: Weather Blog, Weather Blog-imported, Weather-imported