Severe Weather Possible Again For Sioux Empire

After a severe end to the weekend, the Sioux Empire will, once again, see the chance for severe weather not only today but also tomorrow as a low pressure system lifts northwards; its warm front is expected to bring a chance for severe weather across the southeast, the triple point will bring a chance for severe weather across the southwest and the cold front will bring another round of severe weather Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. All modes of severe weather are possible with this next system.

Convective Outlook for Monday

Following the passing of the low pressure system that brought us severe weather on Sunday, another low is expected to lift northwards throughout the day on Monday. As it does, the warm front will extend across the southeast and is going to be the source of lift that will help initiate showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe going into the early/mid afternoon and continue through the early evening. While the warm front isn’t a strong forcing mechanism, it’s a forcing mechanism nonetheless and has been known, in the past, to spawn supercell thunderstorms which is why all modes of severe weather are possible this afternoon/evening.

Tornado Threat for Monday

Wind Threat for Monday

Hail Threat for Monday

Futurecast Showing Thunderstorms Forming, Monday

As the warm front lifts northwards, it will be interacting with a lot of moist, unstable air still lingering over portions of the Sioux Empire while bringing unstable air to parts of the southwest where there is not only an enhanced risk but also a moderate risk for severe weather. Cells across the southeast are expected to develop between noon-4pm and continue through the early evening; as these cells begin to form, that’s when the tornado threat will be the greatest since tornadoes prefer to be discrete and not interact with other thunderstorms. As thunderstorms continue to develop, the tornado threat will change over to more wind and hail and the group of cells will push eastwards by the early evening. But that’s when the threat for severe weather will pick up across the Missouri River.

Futurecast Showing Strong Storms Monday Evening

Futurecast Showing Strong Storms Over the Missouri River, Tuesday Morning

Throughout the day, the center of the low pressure system will move into portions of southwestern South Dakota, eastern Wyoming and northwestern portions of Nebraska. The triple point, its name coming from the fact that the cold front, warm front and, sometimes, the dry line all meet there, will help initiate some strong storms. In this area is where there’s not only a moderate risk for severe weather, but it’s also where we find the greatest chance for tornadoes, wind and hail.
These storms will start out across portions of Wyoming and extreme southwestern portions of South Dakota and push their way northeastward into the Missouri River Valley between 11pm-1am; by then, the main threat should be wind and hail but a spin-up tornado is always possible. We’ll keep you updated on Facebook, Twitter as well as do live cut-ins when necessary. This group of showers/storms will continue to push off towards the northeast following the progression of the low throughout Tuesday. Then, the focus shifts to the cold front and how far east it’ll move before we go into the afternoon.

Convective Outlook for Tuesday

Futurecast Showing the Cold Front Initiating Storms Tuesday Afternoon

Tuesday, more of the Sioux Empire will be underneath an enhanced risk for severe weather with the main focus being along the cold front. Being a stronger forcing mechanism, we’re expecting a line of storms to develop as it exits the Sioux Empire. While a large area is underneath the enhanced risk on Tuesday, who will see the severe weather will depend on how far east the cold front moves throughout the day. If it doesn’t move as fast, more of us will see the chance for severe weather while if it moves fast, less of us across the east will. Again, the tornado threat will be the greatest as this event initially starts and will eventually turn over to more of a wind and hail threat as the event goes on.

Because the severe weather is expected to impact us for two days, with some of it occurring overnight, make sure you’ve liked our page on Facebook, are following us on Twitter and you have KDLT News turned on when the severe weather is happening. We’ll keep you updated and safe throughout both days.

Categories: Weather, Weather Blog